Lets Talk Finances

On June 1, 2023 the S&P 500 closed at 4,221. We will be testing that level today.

6-Month Chart - S&P 500

1-Year Chart - S&P 500

On February 2, 2023 the market closed at 4,179, which was a recent high. It came back down in march, and then had a long run back up from 3,556 on March 10, 2023 to 4,588 on July 31, 2023.

Bond Prices are an Attractive Alternative to Stocks

One-Year Treasury Bond yields are nearly 5.5%, and 10-Year Treasuries are almost 5%. This is an attractive yield when compared to the volatility in the stock, market especially after the recent run up over the last three and a half years.
On February 14, 2020, the S&P 500 was at 3,380, before the infamous Pandemic Crash, then it rocketed back to, in my opinion, an absurdley high of 4,766.
Right now at around 4,200, we are 24% higher than 3,380 from February 14, 2020, and 58% higher than exactly 5 years ago.

5-Year Chart - S&P 500

40-Year Chart - S&P 500

40-Year Chart - S&P 500

Look at the slope of the growth from the 1990s to 2010 shown in blue. Then look at the slope of the growth from 2010 to present. One has to wonder if this is sustainable. Another think to think about is what is the risk/reward ratio of the Stock Market at this time? Is it more likely to continue on its trajectory up with an aggressive slope, or might it slip back into a more historical growth pattern, or revert back down to that growth level from 2010. People and Pundits of course say they know what is coming, but you are smart and know that no one really knows for sure, right?